So here’s my evening update on the storm and more. I won’t get to analyze the 00Z Euro til I’m at work tomorrow. But we can look at the 12Z Euro and the 00Z GFS. The 00Z Euro had backed off last night and sent the storm out to sea. This morning’s run was a little further West, but still primarily offshore enough to only impact the coast north of Delmarva with some light snow and hits Maine pretty good. The map to your left is the12Z run, showing the position of the low. Frankly, it’s not in a bad spot right now on the models. Sure, you’d like to see a big hit, but this far out (138 hours), I like having a track just offshore from my own personal experience. Last winter there were a few instances where the storm tracked like that this far out and then bounced back in the last 72 hours and ended up hitting. This is not last winter (despite the similarities), but still I like this. Again, the west will be what to watch…how the energy shoots in this week (almost a pineapple express scenario…not classic, but close) and how that weak ridge over the intermountain region sets up as well.
Watching the GFS come in and it’s clearly a bit deeper and wetter and probably further west, closer to the coast with this. The big, big question to me is what happens with this Pacific energy undercutting everything out here Thursday…the system actually goes into Baja, Arizona, and New Mexico, which is extremely odd to see in Nina I think. That’s your key right now, because it hits the block and explodes off the coast.
So the GFS is further west…good trend for snow lovers. Literal solution is mod snow for most of VA, southern 2/3 of NJ, and maybe Long Island/Cape Cod, with a secondary blast for Norfolk/NE North Carolina and Delmarva as the storm bombs offshore. This is really in the sweet spot this far out. Timing is Saturday night to Sunday, and again I think the key is almost entirely the energy in the Southwest. Stay tuned.