Models Throwing Punches for Boxing Day Storm

Maps from Sunday and Monday Morning from this morning's European Model: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com

I’m still not ready to commit entirely to a major storm yet for the I-95 cities or the coast, but this morning’s Euro run is holding serve awfully steadily. The Euro, as you can see to the left (click to enlarge), is an utter monster. Keep in mind, this model has little to no support for a solution like this, but it has also been quite consistent. Its ensemble mean is a bit further away from shore, but this would still imply a good hit for a lot of locations. The GFS is a big storm, but just grazes the coast and hits far Eastern New England hard. The Canadian model is somewhere in between the two models.

Again, I will emphasize that the pattern out west with a ridge axis centered over CO/WY is not exactly ideal for a major East Coast storm for the Megalopolis. Yet, something is going on here to allow it to happen on the Euro. The Euro model solution is absolutely incredible. It implies the potential for heavy snow as far south as Jacksonville, FL and on up the East Coast through New England, with the heaviest snow likely in interior VA-NJ/PA and southern New England.

My take:

  • Odds for a storm to impact the coastal areas are equal or greater than it was this time yesterday.
  • Odds for a storm to impact the interior/Megalopolis are about the same as it was yesterday; maybe slightly higher.
  • Odds for an epic blizzard like the Euro model is showing are very low to near zero in my opinion.
  • But…the odds for a significant plowable snow in a lot of areas are slightly higher than yesterday.

Tonight’s model runs will be the first real key, as the main energy involved in blowing this storm up is now onshore here in California. If tonight’s Euro shows something similar to this morning, and/or the GFS model trends closer to the Euro model, we have to think odds are increasing for a big Boxing Day Knockout. If the Euro trends toward the GFS tonight, I think the chances of a major, high impact storm drops substantially. I can’t emphasize this enough: The Euro stands alone right now…it CAN score a coup; it has before, but it also has not been its usual stellar self this winter, which is why I sit here still skeptical. If the models trend toward any given solution on consecutive runs both tonight and Thursday morning, I think the odds of whatever that solution is increase multi-fold. So the next two main model runs (7-10 PM tonight & 7-10 AM tomorrow) are absolutely key in all this. Stay tuned.

Advertisements

1 thought on “Models Throwing Punches for Boxing Day Storm”

  1. 12z Euro ensembles are extremely impressive. I-95 blizzard on with them! I’d like to see everything tuck west a bit synoptically but I think this storm has a “fighting” chance to be a big deal.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s