The Boxing Day Blizzard

Well, it’s underway, and miraculously, there haven’t been any dramatic changes in the forecast in the last 12 hours. The main areas of concern to me seem to be:

  • Cape Cod/Providence/Boston/Long Island: How much falls as sleet/rain vs. snow, thus cutting down snow totals there. The low should ride the coast from about Montauk to Martha’s Vineyard, so this will both lead to a mix/changeover scenario on Cape Cod/southeast Connecticut/Rhode Island and may even have to a dry slot cutting down totals in general. Will this make it as far north as Boston? Doubtful, but we’ll see.
  • Jersey Shore from LBI south: There could also be some mixing issues here. In my experience there are almost always mixing issues in this region when a low passes this close to the coast. So this may cut down totals, and I’ve lowered the range a little to 7-14 (down from 8-16). It’ll still be a good storm, but the combination of a little less precip and this mixing scenario has me cutting back a smidge.
  • Philly-Morristown-Albany: The biggest question of all is regarding how far west the heavy snow will get. And this corridor stands the most to gain or lose depending on the exact amount the precip shield barges inland. I could see this being as little as 6″ in Philly to as much as 12-16″ there depending on the exact track (same goes for the I-287 corridor in Jersey and I-87 from Newburgh to Albany.
  • NYC-Hartford-Interior New England: This could be an absolute wallop for places like Worcester, the Berkshires, the Litchfield Hills, etc. A lot of potential for a lot of snow in these areas, and there could be a cluster of significant 20″+ amounts anywhere between NYC and Boston depending on where the best mesoscale banding sets up.

Lastly, the wind impact from this cannot be stated enough. This is a storm which is going to see its barometric pressure fall from about 996mb off Cape Hatteras to perhaps 970 mb or lower south of Long Island. In meteorological terms, we call this an atmospheric “bomb.” In other words, it’s going to be rapidly deepening, and it will be progressing along close to shore. This is going to create absolutely ferocious winds all the way up the coast and rather far inland. With everyone’s Christmas lights up, coupled with heavy snow, the wind has the potential to cause a LOT of damage/mess. It may not be a bad idea to secure some of the holiday displays Sunday morning. There will also be the potential for significant power outages as well, so be prepared, especially because temperatures will drop into the low 20s to teens Monday night and Tuesday morning, with wind chill on top of that.

Travel is going to be next to impossible and is not recommended, especially from Northeast NJ into New England after about 9 AM-Noon tomorrow. And it may be that this is the case throughout most of eastern PA/NJ/DE/eastern NY as well. This really to me seems like last February, shifted a couple hundred miles further north. So please use caution if you have to travel, and be prepared for numerous road closures/states of emergency by Sunday evening.

7:30 AM Sunday Update: I would likely trim some of the snow totals back east a bit in the 3-7″ range, esp in NY/PA. The storm is moving along at a decent clip. The real intensification takes place this evening…that’s when the “blizzard” aspect will begin to take shape. In terms of the actual amounts, I might be apt to trim back south Jersey/Delaware a bit (more like 6-12 now to me). Overnight models (not going to read into them too much at this point) did cut back snow totals there to the 6-10″ range). Still looks good that the bullseye is between NYC and Boston..but not IN NYC or Boston. Boston may end up on the lower end of my forecast range, but inland areas will push the higher end. The western extent of the snow between the Delaware River and the Hudson River is going to be EXTREMELY sharp now it appears. Could easily go from 2-4″ far west to 12″+ over a very short distance. Whether that gradient is centered over the Delaware Water Gap or Denville in North Jersey, I’m still not sure. Still a tough forecast. Keep an eye on things throughout the day. Also, from northeast NJ into New England, the bad travel may not start until more like 11-2, rather than 9-12.

1:30 PM EST Update:  Everything still on track. Morning model guidance and current radar trends validating a major storm that’s underway. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis showing that the storm is rapidly deepening off the NC coast as it gradually pulls north. This will bring blizzard conditions to most of coastal NJ/Delmarva and inland to about Rt. 206. The blizzard conditions will spread north into NYC and New England this evening. The worst of the weather will be bounded on a line south of I-90 in New England and east of I-287 in NJ-I-87 in NY.

If you live in Southeast Jersey, snowfall rates of at least 1″/hour are occurring and those heavier bands will continue to push onshore from time to time this afternoon and evening. Heavier snow continues to gradually push inland, and to be honest, the snowfall map from last evening doesn’t look too bad at this point (though I’d still shift the 4-8″ area a little further east). Some totals so far include Somers Point at 6″, ACY at 4.3″, a little over 3″ at Ocean City, MD, and 6-10″ in the Hampton Roads area of Southeast VA and parts of Northeast NC, back through Raleigh/Durham. The DC/Baltimore areas have been for the most part “shut out” of the storm so far, and it’s not looking likely that those areas will be hit nearly as hard as others north and east.

Travel and conditions in general will continue to deteriorate this afternoon. Be safe!

Here’s your map for new snow tonight-Monday (click to make it bigger). Feel free to add any questions in the comments, and if you like the updates or have any comments/ideas for future items, let me know! And Happy Boxing Day!

Final Snowfall forecast for Boxing Day Blizzard (click to enlarge)
The storm is moving along at a decent clip. The real intensification takes place this evening…that’s when the “blizzard” aspect will begin to take shape. In terms of the actual amounts, I might be apt to trim back south Jersey/Delaware a bit (more like 6-12 now to me). Overnight models (not going to read into them too much at this point) did cut back snow totals there to the 6-10″ range). Still looks good that the bullseye is between NYC and Boston..but not IN NYC or Boston. Boston may end up on the lower end of my forecast range, but inland areas will push the higher end. The western extent of the snow between the Delaware River and the Hudson River is going to be EXTREMELY sharp now it appears. Could easily go from 2-4″ far west to 12″+ over a very short distance. Whether that gradient is centered over the Delaware Water Gap or Denville in North Jersey, I’m still not sure. Still a tough forecast. Keep an eye on things throughout the day.
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