What 2 Watch 4

Watching the Onion Sports Dome tonight, so there’s a play on SportsCenter. A couple things to watch. As the annoying snow/ice/sleet/rain storm exits the Northeast tonight, attention focuses on the next two systems. The first one looks to bring a quick hitting shot of snow in a couple days, followed by a much stronger and larger system next week, who’s ultimate fate remains to be seen.

GFS Forecast for Friday Morning, credit: PSU E-Wall (http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski)

A very quick moving system will swing through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday night and exiting Friday afternoon. The map to the left shows the GFS forecast for Friday morning, which has a pocket of moderate to heavy precip in Central Jersey and just south of Long Island. This is a pretty cut and dry situation, with the system sliding through. The only final question is on track. Once that’s in line, we can pin down amounts and locations. Right now it appears that there will be a solid stripe of 2-4″, surrounded by lighter amounts. At this point, the models pin it north of the Mason-Dixon Line and northwest of I-95. So Philly-NYC expect roughly 2-4″ right now. There is the chance it could be closer to 5-6″ in spots, but this will not be a major storm. Then, as the storm blows up exiting the New England coastal region, we could see some heavy snow fly back toward Boston and Eastern Massachusetts. I wouldn’t be shocked to see higher amounts there. Heavy snow will also fall in western Maryland and western PA and parts of WV.

Now heading into next week, the models continue to advertise a significant East Coast event. I’m not entirely convinced this will be a big snow event for anyone in particular. The three main models (Canadian, American, and European) all show the storm. The GFS is a little more suppressed, which isn’t abnormal. So it would just be a mild snow event. The European and Canadian models are much stronger and hug the coast. So what we have here is a situation. We’re a week away and we have a storm showing up, and it could be potentially strong. We’ve got it showing up a little further west than more recent big snow events on the whole. And we have disagreements on overall track.

So, I’ve gotten a lot of questions about next week. The bottom line: Way too far out to hype this thing. It could do any number of things. It could be snow, it could be rain, it could be a mix, it could be nothing. So stay tuned!

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State of Occlusion is on Facebook! I’ll post some additional cool links, quick model status updates, and snow maps early on that page. “Like” the blog by clicking here!

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