Jonas 2016: Make Snow Forecasting Great Again

I don’t have any mom texts to run with today, but I do have a map. We’ll get to that shortly. Let’s break things down.

So what’s changed since yesterday, Matt?

Honestly? Not much really. We still have a storm. It’s still early in the game for snow forecast maps, but we can at least make some assumptions. We still have a major coastal flooding issue to deal with. We do have blizzard watches posted, among other NWS watches and warnings. All this means is “prepare for a snowstorm.”

Where are the watches and warnings?

Glad you asked. Here:

012016_snowwarnings
National Weather Service Watch/Warning Map as of 5:45 ET Wednesday

In the East, the purple are winter weather advisories, the blue winter storm watches, the pink winter storm warnings, and the green near DC is a Blizzard Watch. Consult your local NWS office website for what it all means exactly, but the bottom line is a major winter storm is going impact places from Central Arkansas to New York City.

Has the coastal flooding idea changed?

Not really. There have been some forecast tweaks, but overall you’re still looking at a top 5-10 coastal flooding event along the Jersey and Delaware Shore, and possibly for places south and north of there also. Basically, this should be the worst you’ve seen since Sandy. It should *not* match Sandy in most places (though in Cape May and Delaware it’s going to come close), but I don’t want that to diminish the significance. The coast is far more vulnerable in spots now than it was then, so just because it’s not Sandy II, does not mean it’s going to bust. This is a big deal. Here are the very latest tidal forecasts for Cape May, Atlantic City, and Sandy Hook.

This flooding event will rival some of the great nor’easters in memory. Think Ash Wednesday 1962, Halloween 1991, December 1992. This storm will have elements of those storms and it should be treated seriously if you live on the coast or back bays.

Alright, so talk to me about snow.

Here is *my* snow forecast thinking. This is not an official forecast. It’s subject to change, and you should always consult the official NWS forecast or local TV for the most up to date info. Yes, I’m a native of Jersey and spent 5 winters drawing snow maps in Upstate New York when I worked in Syracuse and Utica, but I live in Texas now. I can only do so much.

012016_Snow_Forecast
My snow forecast as of Wednesday evening. Not an official forecast, just my own opinion.

What do I think? Some key points.

The northern fringe of this storm is an absolute nightmare. If you live north of I-195 in NJ or I-76 in PA, this is going to be an incredibly difficult forecast to peg down. The tight gradient in snowfall that I spoke of yesterday is going to wreak havoc. A 20 mile shift in track of the storm (highly possible) could lead to a 6-12″ difference in snow totals, if not more. This is going to be a big problem for North Jersey, possibly the Harrisburg metro area, New York City and extreme southern Connecticut/Long Island.

The Jersey Shore is oscillating between a total mix scenario and a thumping snow. I don’t think this is like the storms of 2009 and 2010, where coastal South Jersey absolutely raked in snow totals. This will be more complex, and I’ve cautiously gone about 3-6″ there, but I do see risk for higher amounts depending on the exact final track.

The thump zone for this will be Northern/Western Virginia through DC and Baltimore. While I don’t expect a uniform 18-24″ in that zone, I do expect some locations to push 30″, contingent on mixing and thunderstorm potential. Other areas will see less than 18″. That’s the nature of snowstorms like this.

Yes, thunder is going to be likely from VA through NJ with this I think.

Winds of 30-50 mph are likely, and some gusts could be even stronger. This will create blizzard conditions. I would not be shocked to see Blizzard Watches expanded tomorrow.

Anything else I should know?

Snowstorms are fun. This one is going to be big, massive, and historic. While fun, it has a very serious element to it that should be respected. If you have plans on Saturday, I would strongly consider rescheduling them. Heed the warnings from NWS. They’re not just throwing this stuff out there. It’s serious.

And please consider taking pictures of something other than your patio furniture. Seriously. Get creative!

Follow me on Twitter @mattlanza.

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