Snowzilla After Dark: It’s Happening

Here’s a special late night blog edition on Snowzilla, Jonas, Blizzard 2016, David Snowie, #winterstorm, whatever the heck name you give it.

What’s going on?

It’s snowing, a little faster and farther north than expected.

What does that mean for my final totals?

Well, it depends. Here’s a map, then an outline by region.

012216_snowforecast
My own (updated) revised snow forecast after reassessing SW Connecticut.

For Washington/Baltimore: Snow continues to steadily accumulate. Based on radar trends and model data, you’ll be in this for another 18-24 hours or so (as of 11 PM Friday). Final snow totals of 18-30″ or so seem reasonable, varying based on banding and any mixing (sleet to Fredericksburg as of this evening).

For Philadelphia/SW Jersey/N Del: Snow will rapidly pick up overnight, with totals of 12-18″ likely by tomorrow afternoon, continuing into tomorrow evening. Final totals probably 18-24″ average, maybe higher or lower in spots, depending on banding.

For Central/North Jersey and New York City: Snow will move in overnight. It should get north of I-80. Accumulations will probably range from 1-6″ along and north of the NJ/NY border, 6-10″ to I-80, 10-20″ between I-80 and I-78 (including the northern half of New York City), and 18-24″+ south of I-78, including the Southern half of New York City.

For New England: Still mainly a conversational snow, though the islands south of Massachusetts and Rhode Island could see decent snows. Nothing New Englanders cannot handle though. In Connecticut, it’s entirely possible the coastline gets hammered. But it will be a very close call. The “knife edge” between heavy snow and nuisance snow is further north tonight than it has been, and probably is somewhere between I-84 and I-95. My thoughts are to keep that south.

Why the shift north?

The storm itself seems to be tracking a little further north than anticipated. A few weather models alluded to this, though even they overstepped things a bit, trying to take heavy snow to Boston. Time will tell, but it seems like just a small scale shift in the grand scheme of things. I’ve been telling you that area in N NJ/NYC was on a knife edge all week. It just so happens a small shift envelopes them.

When does it end?

The storm should end from southwest to northeast late Saturday evening into Sunday early morning.

Follow me on Twitter: @mattlanza

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s