More Wintry Mayhem

This might be the worst period of travel of all the storms we’ve seen the last two winters. With 1,000 flights cancelled in Atlanta tomorrow, and the odds increasing that this southern storm is going to become a major Northeast snowstorm, airline schedules are going to be absolutely logjammed this week. This is looking ugly right now. Travel in the Deep South is becoming difficult if not impossible in spots. A stripe of 3-6″+ of snow, plus a stripe of 1/4-1/2″ ice accretion, and you have issues.

Snowfall Outlook for the Midweek Storm (Not a forecast)

My snowfall outlook for the Northeast is at the left. We’re still a solid 48 hours away from things beginning. But this is just meant to give you an idea of the highest probabilities of the highest snow. This is not meant to be a forecast and should not be treated like one. To sum up the models this morning: All models take the low and develop off the Northeast coast. Some are closer than others (NAM/Euro) and bring heavier precip. There’s going to be (again) a sharp cutoff of the western extent of the real heavy snow, vs. generic 3-7″ totals. There will also be a sharp southwestern cutoff to this as well.

So what does this mean? It means that in specifically New Jersey I think, there’s going to be a very sharp gradient that cuts off somewhere between Atlantic City, Trenton, and about Parsippany. North and east of that line, odds for heavy snow (6-12+) increases significantly. South and west of it, the odds drop off. It will be a little while before we can really peg that down. So for now, roughly from about NYC into New England stands the highest odds for significant snow. There is a strong possibility of a 12-18″ area of major snows, somewhere between the immediate north and east side of NYC into Southern New England. Mixing may cut down some totals in Eastern Long Island and coastal S New England, but for now, I just carpet bombed the whole area for potentially significant snows until we can know more. The DC and Baltimore areas, as has been the case most of this winter, look to get shafted by this storm, caught in between the developing coastal and dying inland low. I think this means 1-3″ at most, but we’ll see. Philly is on the cusp between the heavy stuff and nuisance stuff, so think 4-8/5-10 type snows for now.

Can things change? Yes. The NAM and Euro models are the beefiest right now in terms of heavy snow. In my opinion, they’ve had some strengths this winter, so I’m leaning more heavily on them together. The GFS model is a little too far offshore in my opinion, and thus produces lighter snow. The short range ensembles are also not very excited about this storm, but they also underestimated snow in the last event, so I would take them with a grain of salt.

So stay tuned, as there will be tweaks and changes, but I feel personally that this will be a nuisance event in DC/BWI, moderate event for Philly and South Jersey (potentially significant for the Shore), a significant to borderline major event for NYC, and a major event for much of interior Southern New England (some shadowing may occur in some areas, so it may not hammer ALL of SNE, but it looks promising to be good for many).

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