Irony of ironies, almost all the models are converging on a solution. There are still uncertainties on this storm, especially regarding how far inland the significant snow goes. One model is suggesting it goes almost all the way to Pittsburgh. Another says it barely crosses the Delaware River. So that will be what needs to be worked out over the next 12-18 hours. Not going to be a very relaxing Christmas for many meteorologists in the East.
This storm has truly been remarkable to watch. It’s been all over the place, and there are a number of very well seasoned meteorologists I’ve heard from that say they have never seen anything even remotely this poor in their careers. This just serves to remind everyone that weather is a VERY inexact science…and it will always throw us curve balls. I’ve included an updated snowfall forecast map below, and like I would encourage you with any snow map you see today and tonight, take it with a grain of salt. There’s uncertainties that still cloud this forecast. The bottom line: There will be a high impact storm for most areas north and east of Baltimore. Regardless of specifics, this will be significant for a number of areas, and travel within and to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic is going to be difficult to perhaps impossible on Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. There will be mixing issues along the coast of NJ, Long Island and Southeast Massachusetts. Those mixing issues could even extend inland a bit too, depending on the exact track of the storm. Any mixing will cut significantly into snowfall totals in those areas. There is the potential for higher amounts in the eastern areas of the blue color (4-8) region, again, depending on the exact track. There will be blizzard conditions when it’s snowing on the coast and possibly a bit inland.
This is a big storm, so despite the uncertainties, doubts, and changes you’ve heard of, and the jokes you may be inclined to make about “those weather people,” do take it seriously, as it will be a high impact storm that could still throw curve balls. And if you hate snow, it looks to warm up a bit with an early January thaw soon after this storm.
Click the map to enlarge.