Quick Weekend Snow Risk Assessment

Not much to say beyond what was said yesterday. Just looking at the models today and going off past experience, I feel this first system Friday-Saturday is not going to be a backbreaker on a large scale. I think we’re dealing with a more localized storm in areas more suited to handle heavy/surprise snow…an Alberta Clipper system that starts to explosively develop off the New England coast, which may for some point carry one of my favorite descriptions: A ballistic clipper. These types of storms can really hammer areas north of I-80 if the situation is right.

Snowfall Risk Assessment for the Northeast Friday-Saturday (Click to enlarge)

So anywhere from about Rochester or Syracuse eastward is fair game for this possibly overachieving. Right now, I think the odds of the “clipper” overachieving are highest in the Catskills, but this could easily be extended north toward the Mohawk Valley or even the southern Adirondacks and Berkshires. The secondary area is where the intense coastal development will take place, which is off the Massachusetts coast, possibly putting Portsmouth, Boston, Providence, and Cape Cod under the gun for a period of heavy snow. I’m non-commital on that area though, and more enthused with the idea of parts of the interior being “surprised” by this. For now, you can see my highest risk areas. These may be expanded or contracted later. Additionally, the area of 3″ accumulating snow could end up pushing a little further south, but if I lived south of I-195 in Jersey, I wouldn’t be too concerned or enthused for snow at this point. I think this first event will be primarily a north of I-80/east of I-81 storm. I’ll keep you posted.

We still have this other system showing up on the models for midweek next week, and that one I’m still not writing off or committing to at this point…but I will say, given recent model trends and the overall pattern, it would make sense that someone will see a significant winter storm for the middle of next week. Stay tuned.


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