Historic Early Season Snowstorm

Snowfall forecast for Saturday - click to enlarge!

Sometimes, you just need to call it what it is. This is straight up a bonafide snowstorm, the likes of which not many people have ever seen or probably will ever see again…because of when it’s occurring. If you showed me these maps, I probably would have guessed mid to late November…still early, but more reasonable. If this storm occurred in December, we’d be talking about a blizzard for the Northeast Corridor. It’s remarkable by every stretch of the imagination.

The snow map is above, and here are a few things to note…especially the 3rd one…

1.) Wind: It will be strong, with our models today suggesting we see some 20-30 mph winds in the interior, with perhaps some 40-50 mph gusts on the coast. This will cause havoc inland, as any sort of wind > 10 mph with heavy, wet snow on trees that still have some leaves will lead to trees coming down and likely widespread power outages in the red area, numerous power outages in the purple area, and scattered outages in the dark blue area.

2.) The Northwest Connecticut into Western/Central Massachusetts corridor looks to be absolutely crushed by this storm. It will likely be an extremely severe hit there and could be one of the worst snowstorms in terms of problems and inconvenience for them in recent memory.

3.) Elevation will play a MAJOR role in this storm. While I have opted to unfilter things a bit regarding snow amounts, I can’t help but feel that there may be a wide and sometimes unbelievable disparity in snow totals in some areas…especially in and around Hartford, CT, Morris County, NJ, the area between Reading and Pottstown in PA, north and west of Baltimore…all places where terrain tends to transition from the more flat Coastal Plain to the Appalachian foothills…this may occur elsewhere as well, especially in valleys, like the Lehigh, Susquehanna, and Connecticut Valleys. You may see some areas with 2-3″ of wet snow…travel 5 miles north to slightly higher terrain and see 6-10″ of snow. It will be that kind of storm…the kind where a truly accurate snowfall forecast map is next to impossible.

4.) The Big Cities will likely see flakes…especially Philly-Boston, but mostly at the tail end of the storm and any accumulation should be minor and mostly on grassy surfaces….though Saturday evening could be comical in some places.

So go load up on supplies for Sunday’s football games, enjoy game 7 tonight, and enjoy the snow while you have it, because warmer air will start melting this stuff as fast as Sunday afternoon.

Raleigh, Tuscaloosa/Birmingham, Joplin….Springfield, MA

2011: Raleigh, NC….Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, AL…Joplin, MO…Springfield, MA
1953: Flint, MI…Worcester, MA…Waco, TX

Not much to say about this…it was awe-inspiring to watch as it happened yesterday, and it happened in an area I’m very familiar with, so it hit close to home. But a couple words on it….

Tornadoes don’t have personality….they don’t pick and choose to destroy some houses and spare others. They don’t choose to form on certain days and choose not to on others. If the right ingredients come together over any given location, a tornado can develop. And in 1953 and now in 2011, it’s just so happened that several of the areas impacted by tornadoes have been large communities and unfortunately they’ve been large tornadoes in many cases.

Weather Scope App for iPad image of Doppler Velocity near Monson, MA

If Springfield, MA should teach you one thing, it’s this: It does not matter where you live or what you remember or were taught about the weather in your town: If the right set of ingredients comes together at the right time, a large, destructive tornado can develop and can do serious, life threatening damage. What you see on the left…that’s something straight out of the Midwest or Plains. But that’s over Massachusetts. It can happen to you, and yesterday is a textbook example of why you need to pay attention when warnings are issued. If you take one lesson from it…that’s the one.

In the end, I think we’re looking at a solid stripes of EF-3 damage in between widespread EF-1/2. The radar presentation of this thing was as good as anything I’ve seen this spring, and hands down the most well developed supercell I’ve ever seen on radar in the Northeast, so it has the potential to be an EF-4 in a few spots… especially near where this radar image was taken. It was at its best (worst) I believe between Monson and Southbridge. But we’ll see. NWS Boston won’t have an official answer until tomorrow it appears.

Pick of the Weekend

Just trying something new here. My pick of the weekend is the Pacific Northwest. After months of rain and misery, at least a couple nice days are on top with 80s likely in Portland Saturday and upper 70s in Seattle as well into Sunday. As long as the dry, offshore flow develops as expected, it could be a chamber of commerce type weekend in the Northwest. Long overdue!

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Here We Snow Again!

Snowfall Forecast for Tues/Wed.

There’s the snow map at the left. Here’s some ideas by region.

– Boston area could see some very high snow amounts of 16-20″, depending on the exact track of the storm. If the storm tracks just right, they could get slammed, as some models suggest. Interior Southern New England right now would appear to be the jackpot, but I wanted to emphasize the risk to the Boston area. Parts of CT and MA may see some 20″+ amounts, with generic 8-16″ amounts as you approach the coast (some coastal areas and the CT River Valley may see lesser amounts). Cape Cod will likely be close enough to the storm to mix or change to rain. This will cut down on snow amounts a bit there. Additionally, wind will crank on Wednesday, leading to blizzard conditions in parts of New England.

– Metro NYC area/NE NJ won’t be the jackpot this time around. However, this still appears to be a respectable, business hampering snow. Think of the last system that went through, think of post-Christmas, and expect this storm to end up somewhere in between the two. There will yet again be a very sharp cutoff to significant snows, somewhere within the I-287 corridor. Blowing and drifting snow will occur in this region Tuesday night and Wednesday.

– Southern NJ will be close to the center of the storm, so I do expect the possibility of a mix. It also appears the storm will really explode a little too far away from this area this time. I still expect a respectable 4-8″, with the potential for higher amounts in mainland Cape May, Atlantic, Burlington, and Ocean Counties (6-10 perhaps?). Coastal sections may even see less, primarily in Cape May County. If mixing for some reason does not occur, tack on an additional 2-4″ to these forecast amounts. Blowing snow will cause a few problems Wednesday.

– Philly/Trenton will be solidly in the 4-8″ range, with potential for higher amounts (8-12) as you get closer to Trenton/New Brunswick and slightly lesser amounts as you slide south and west of Philly. Blowing snow will be a problem on Wednesday.

– DC/Baltimore appear to be in the 1-4″ range, with again potential for higher amounts in the northeast corner of the map. Much of the interior back through OH/MI will average 1-4″ as well, with potential for a few 4-6″ amounts in spots, depending on how things shake out.

And that’s that! After this storm, it appears we’ll head into a relative period of calm in the Northeast. So enjoy this if you like big storms and snow. Winter is certainly not over though, so stay tuned.

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Just a reminder… State of Occlusion is on Facebook. I’ve posted some additional cool links, quick model updates, and snow maps early on that page. “Like” the blog by clicking here!